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GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - IMPACT ON ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

Edited by Engr. Jerome C. Umolu, P.E.
Published by Damtech Nigeria, Limited

This document contains abstracts from the above-entitled book of proceedings from the International Workshop on Impact of Global Climate Change on Energy Development. The workshop was held from March 28-30, 1994 at the Engineering Building of the Nigerian Society of Engineers in Lagos, Nigeria. The Workshop was hosted by Federal Ministry of Power and Steel and the National Electric Power Authority. The communique issued at the conclusion of the workshop is also available.

The book is currently only available in Nigeria. Plans are underway to distribute the book internationally, depending on demand. Please direct inquiries to:

Engr. Jerome C. Umolu,

Damtech Nigeria, Ltd.,

P.O. Box 6417 Anglo-Jos,

Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria

Phone/Fax: 234-73-463513

<Fowarding e-mail address: mcumolu@ccnet.com>

BOOK OF ABSTRACTS

Table of Contents

SECTION I - INTRODUCTION

SECTION II - CLIMATE CHANGE

SECTION III - IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

SECTION IV - CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

SECTION V - POLICY SUGGESTIONS

SECTION VI - ASSESSING, MONITORING AND MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE

SECTION VII - QUANTIFYING CLIMATE CHANGE

SECTION VIII - POWER PLANNING AND OPERATIONS

SECTION IX - TOWARDS IMPROVED ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

SECTION X - EDITORIAL ROUND-UP



SECTION I - INTRODUCTION


REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPLICATION ON ENERGY PRODUCTION IN THE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT

By

Evans O. Aina

Director General/Chief Executive

Federal Environmental Protection Agency (FEPA)

and

S.A. Adejuwon

Chief Environmental Scientist

Climate Change Unit

Planning and Evaluation Department

FEPA

Abstract

Whereas the broad characteristics of the global climate have remained fairly stable and stationary since the end of the last glacial epoch some 10,000 years ago, climatological records based on the synthesis and statistical manipulation of daily weather records of temperature, rainfall and other parameters have shown considerable variation from year to year, decade to decade and century to century. Though the recent fluctuations are generally small when compared with the dramatic changes associated with the ice age, they may nevertheless have important socioeconomic consequences on the ever increasing world population.

One of the recent observations by the United Nations is that the increase in the world population and the attendant desire to raise their standard of living have increased the pressure on the natural resources of food, water, shelter and energy. It is a basic fact that the supply of these resources can be seriously affected should there be a marginal change in climate.

With particular reference to energy supply, a small shift in climate towards aridity may substantially reduce the amount of energy production and supply especially in the developing countries where there is much reliance on hydro electric power generated from dams constructed on rivers as exemplified (among others) by Volta Dam on River Volta and Kainji Dam on River Niger in Ghana and Nigeria respectively. Thus the examination of climate change visavis hydro electric power production in the developing countries becomes relevant since trend in the global climate system in the very recent times is towards warming.

This paper therefore examines the trend of rainfall over a period of 64 years in Nigeria for the purpose of identifying any shift in climate which may warrant corresponding reduction in hydro electric power production.


THE NIGER RIVER BASIN IN GEOGRAPHICAL PERSPECTIVE

By

O. Areola

University of Ibadan, Nigeria

and

F.O. Akintola

University of Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract

In planning for the management of the water resources of the Niger Basin, it is important to take into account its geographical characteristics. For the Niger River runs for over 4,000km across West Africa and its basin covers about a third of the land area of the Subregion, extending over nine countries Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroun and Chad. This extensive River Basin varies widely in geology, physiography, hydroclimatic conditions and in cultural, political and socioeconomic conditions. This diversity of the physical and human geography has always been very important in resource management in the Niger River Basin. It has been a vital element in the response (or lack of it) to the current episodes of drought in the SudanoSahelian Zone.

This work provides information on those aspects of the physical and cultural landscapes of the River Niger Basin which are vital to a proper appreciation of the role of climate in the ecology of natural resources in the basin.


GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION IN THE NIGER BASIN OF NIGERIA

By

Lekan Oyebande

Hydrology Laboratory

Faculty of Environmental Sciences,

University of Lagos,

Akoka, Lagos,

Nigeria.

Abstract

Water is vital to all sectors of the national economic development, particularly energy development. It is indispensable in the development of all the five major energy sources. It is of course the basic resource for hydropower generation, and its availability in adequate quantity all the time, for this most environmentally friendly energy source, is of utmost necessity. This is why any negative impact of global climate change on water availability represents a big threat to the already vulnerable hydropower development of Nigeria and of the Niger Basin as a whole.

Key aspects of strategies for sustainable development of the Niger Basin's water resources in an integrated manner, which minimizes disputes among the riparian states are discussed. The concept of integrated river basin development involves the solution of development problems which takes into account the interests of all sectors of the economy, branches of water management and social groups in a coordinated manner. Over the years, as integrated basin development became more or less universally accepted, progress was also made from singlepurpose to multipurpose water projects. In recent years, environmental criterion has become one of the important objectives of integrated basin development, as a major improvement over the narrow costbenefit approach. Together with efficiency of demand management, environmental friendliness constitutes the centrepiece of sustainable development of water resources in a given river or lake basin especially in the light of climate change.

All of the present and envisaged hydropower projects (except for two or three) are based on the Niger river system. The Niger is the largest river system in West Africa. It drains a total area of nearly 2 million square km. Its main course runs from the head waters in the Fouta Djallon Highlands in Guinea for 4,200 km and drains nine countries including Nigeria. The fragile resource base of the riparian economies is under increasing threat by hydroclimatic variability and associated disasters such as droughts and floods, coupled with poor land use; all of which result in soil erosion, and loss, water shortage and direct losses of products and lives. The current management approach has been to utilise multipurpose dam projects to provide overyear storage for various uses. At present some 12 large dams exist, while 34 are at varying stages of planning and design. Although only seven of the dams have hydropower component, they account for 61 percent of the total available active storage capacity.

The present paper focuses on the modality for achieving an acceptable balance with energy development in focus, in the light of the new dimension, global climate change.



SECTION II - CLIMATE CHANGE


THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND VARIATIONS IN EARTH CLIMATE DURING THE PAST 500 MILLION YEARS

By

Torsten Schwarz

Technical University of Berlin,

Institute of Mineral Deposits Research

nstReuterPlatz 1

D10587 Berlin, Germany

Abstract

Mineral deposits formed by weathering provide a reliable tool for the recognition of longterm climatic changes. High atmospheric CO2concentrations during times of prevailing greenhouse conditions lead to an increased chemical weathering. This results in the formation of tropical weathering product, like laterite or bauxite, also in high latitudes. Thus, during the Phanerozoic, two periods of greenhouse climate in the Early Paleozoic and the Mesozoic are recognized also by the abundance of weatheringrelated mineral deposits.


WEST AFRICAN REGIONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES

By

S.W. Petters

Department of Geology

University of Calabar

Calabar

and

I.J. Ekpoh

Department of Geography and Regional Planning

University of Calabar

Calabar

Abstract

Past climatic records in West Africa reveal low frequency climatic perturbations as in other parts of the world. Of enormous significance lately is the fact that shorter duration climatic oscillations have overprinted the normally longer climatic rhythms orcycles of larger amplitudes, which were experienced all over the earth during the last 2.5 million years. Within the present century, West Africa has witnessed four droughts, two of which transpired during the last 20 years. In Nigeria, there has been a definite shift in the longterm rainfall mean towards more arid conditions. These climatic changes have had adverse implications for water resources availability for power generation and agriculture.


GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES AND VARIABILITY: EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA AND NIGERIA

By

E.E. Balogun

Professor of Atmospheric Physics, and

Director, Institute of Ecology,

Obafemi Awolowo University, IleIfe

Nigeria

and

A.T. Salami,

Research Fellow,

Institute of Ecology,

Obafemi Awolowo University, IleIfe,

Nigeria

Abstract

The chapter discussed the known and suspected causes of global and regional climate change and reviewed evidence of climate change in Africa with special emphasis on West Africa and Nigeria. It also discussed the possible impact of climate change on thunderstorm and lightning occurrence and precipitation processes in Nigeria. The chapter further recommended active participation of Nigeria in the investigation of manmade causes of climate change and suggested a programme of studies for understanding natural fluctuations in weather and climate.


GLOBAL CLIMATE VARIATIONS AFFECT RIVER DISCHARGES IN SUBSAHELIAN W. AFRICA

by

A.E. Ihenyen

Dept. of Geology, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria.

Abstract

The global climate has experienced a number of documented variations from the Pleistocene (1.8 million years ago) to the Holocene (Present time). The Pleistocene and Holocene climatic phases constitute the Quaternary period which forms the Upper Cainozoic in the Geological Time Table. The Quaternary was a period in which Glacial and Interglacial climates interchanged regularly. Four glacial periods: Gunz (Menapian), Mindel (Elsterian), Riss (Saalian) and Wurm (Weichselian) and three Interglacial periods: GunzMindel (Cromerian), MindelRiss (Holsternian) and RissWurm (Eemian) occurred from the Middle to the Upper Pleistocene climatic phases (about 1.4 0.01 million years ago). The Holocene, the past 10,000 years Before Present (B.P.) is considered to represent another Interglacial (warm) phase. In. W. Africa, South of the Sahara, the past 13,000 years Before Present show records of two dry and two wet climatic phases which are comparable to European equivalents. The first phase occurred between approximately 1150013600 years B.P. and is humid. Phase II is dry and of a relatively shorter duration (about 350 years), while Phase III is another wet stage lasting about 400011,000 years B.P. Phase IV, the youngest stage began about 4000 years B.P. and represents an arid phase which persists till date. Of this period, the last 1000 years have witnessed more frequent climatic variations. Records of 100 years of major river discharges that flow through the Sahel region of West Africa as indicators of years of flood and drought indicate 3 drastic droughts in which river discharges are low separated by two longer humid phases with high river discharges. Favourable conditions last about 18 years while arid ones last about 11 years. Each drought maximum appears to reoccur after 31 ± 3 years. These shorter climatic variations appear to be linked to the 11 years sunspot cycle.


CAUSES, EFFECTS AND IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE IN NIGERIA

By

A. Nnamigwe Agu

Department of Geography and Meteorology,

Enugu State University of Science and Technology,

Enugu, Nigeria

Abstract

Two very important developments on the globe: increased carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere and ozone depletion of the stratosphere, have given much concern to the modern world. Evidence of climatic change in the distant and recent past are pursued both on a world scale and on local scale. Both the paucity of available data and the shortness of the period of meteorological observation records make it difficult to hazard conclusive statements on global climatic change. Causes of climatic change in the past are reviewed and the most plausible cause appears to be the theory of change in earth's orbital characteristics. However, this theory explains only long term climatic changes of glacial and interglacial dimensions. It is concluded that earth as a 'super organism' or system, is made up of interacting subsystems: biospheric, lithospheric, hydrospheric and atmospheric systems, whose operations are not yet fully understood.

The effect of climatic change or variability in Nigeria is examined and suggestions made on their implications on the energy needs of the country. National Energy Policy is recommended to permit both small and medium scale energy systems, especially dams to be developed and managed by State and Local Governments, subject, of course, to legislative authority of the Federal Government.


A STUDY OF SOLAR RADIATION DISTRIBUTION IN NIGERIA

By

A.J. Akor

and

F.J.K. Ideriah

Rivers State University of Science and Technology

Nkpolu, Port Harcourt

Abstract

Monthly and annual solar data for Nigeria for the years 1951 to 1960 and 1981 are presented on a solar map of the country, to provide visual assessment of the direct energy resources available. The country is delineated into six solar zones using isoflux lines which are compared to the vegetation boundaries for common features. The vegetation boundaries tend to occur close to the solar isoflux lines, an indication of the effect of the sun's energy on the vegetation zones of Nigeria.

A computational model, using Fourier series analysis, is developed which fits the data for the solar zones within 7 per cent error bound. The model can thus be used to predict the average monthly solar radiation on a horizontal surface in any location of solar zones in Nigeria.

Such models are useful in providing necessary information for the design of solar energy devices for generating power and in predicting climatic changes due to periodic variations in solar radiation in the region, when used in conjuction with other models. The models will also be useful in tracking the effect of solar energy on vegetation.



SECTION III - IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE


IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER AVAILABILITY AND IMPLICATIONS

By

J.C. Agunwamba

Department of Civil Engineering,

University of Nigeria,

Nsukka, Nigeria.

Abstract

The work presented the impact of global climate change on water availability for dams and hydroelectric power generation. The socioeconomic and technical implications of such impact were analysed with respect to the design, operation and utilization of existing and future dams. Global climate change will have profound impacts on hydroelectricity generation and hydrodams. Urgent steps that could help mitigate the impacts so that in future Nigeria will have an uninterrupted reliable electricity supply, have been presented. Apart from anticipating the climate change, which is rather a curative measure, it has been suggested that emissions from thermal stations be curtailed as a positive measure towards forestalling the change.


SOME ASPECTS OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

By

A.M.A. Imevbore

Obafemi Awolowo University, IleIfe

Abstract

Global warming is no longer speculation. The threat is real and has far reaching consequences. While it is a frightening topic among some people, others and very many too are unaware of its implications. A lot of factors come into play and the size of the impacts varies from one region to another. This short contribution discusses a few of the less wellknown impacts of climate change.


IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE ON COASTAL RESOURCES AND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

By

L.F. Awosika

Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research,

P.M.B. 12729, Victoria Island, Lagos.

Fax: 2341619517

Abstract

The Nigerian coastal zone which lies just north of the equator (Latitudes 4° 10' to 6° 20'N, and Longitudes 2° 45' to 8° 35'E) is very low lying with nowhere exceeding 3 meters above mean sea level. It is widest in the Niger Delta reaching about 150 km. Seven of the thirty States in the Federal Republic of Nigeria are within the coastal area. Nigeria with a population of over 88 million has about 20 million people living in the coastal zone. Nigeria's coastal zone is richly blessed with various natural resources like oil, gas, fish, sand etc which are presently being exploited for economic development. Development of coastal areas is accelerating and use conflicts are increasing. Both natural and anthropogenic activities in the coastal zone are leading to rapid degradation of coastal areas. Global climate change and concomitant sea level rise will have adverse impacts on the coastal zone. Nigeria's main sources of energy: hydroelectric and oil will be adversely affected by these impacts. With a one meter sea level rise, Nigeria could lose over 18,000 square kilometers of coastal land, with well over 3.6 million people at risk by the end of the twenty first century. The adverse impacts of sea level rise will cause the loss of valuable land and coastal resources as well as lead to the disruption of the socioeconomic activities in Nigeria. Response measures could cost Nigeria between U.S. $549.2 million to $650.6 million for important area protection and between U.S. $1,163.3 million to $1,462.9 million for total protection. Policy options to provide more energy for the teeming population and industries as well as reduce carbon dioxide emissions will add another uneasy burden on the already strained economy. The concern about climate change and sea level rise in Nigeria requires a time horizon reflecting the strategic nature of the problem.


CLIMATE CHANGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACT ON BIOMASS ENERGY PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA: A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

By

F.A. Adesina and J.O. Adejuwon

Department of Geography,

Obafemi Awolowo University

IleIfe, Nigeria

ABSTRACT

Biomass energy is an important component of Nigerian energy profile. A large percentage of the nation's population still depend on it for the supply of domestic energy. It is argued in this work that a consideration of the potential impact of climate change on biomass energy is significant to NEPA, because under a drier climatic condition, wood production might drop badly and there is likely to be a shift to available energy sources which might be electricity. The established biological productivity of Nigeria is computed and estimates made give an increase of 0.5°C in temperature. The results show that biological productivity will decrease. It is concluded that the result might be indicating some important trends, but further analysis is needed to arrive at more definite conclusions.


THE IMPACT ON ENERGY DEVELOPMENT OF RECENT CHANGES IN THE MACROPHYTIC VEGETATION OF LAKE KAINJI: A CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE

By

J.S.O. Ayeni

National Institute for Freshwater Fisheries Research,

New Bussa, Nigeria.

and

E.A. Obot

Department of Biological Sciences,

Nigerian Defence Academy,

Kaduna, Nigeria.

and

I.G. Mbagwu

National Institute for Freshwater Fisheries Research,

New Bussa, Nigeria.

Abstract

This work deals primarily with the impact of climate change on hydroenergy development. While there are other forms of energy such as green (photosynthetic) energy, solar radiation energy, wind and chemical energy, this paper will concentrate on observations of recent changes in the population structure of aquatic plants (green energy) in Lake Kainji and relate this to climate change.

The possible impact of climatic changes on green energy production in the Kainji Dam will be discussed to suggest an urgent need for a programme of aquatic weed management including carefully regulated drawdown management.


THE BIOPHYSICAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

By

S.A. Daramola

Dept. of Architecture,

Federal University of Technology

Yola.

Abstract

High summer daytime temperature, large diurnal temperature range, high solar radiation, low humidity and low wind velocity are some of the climatic features that characterise the current climatic change experienced around the globe, especially within the tropical and arid zones.

This work analyses the effect of this development on the thermal comfort of man in relationship to his habitat and the likely socioeconomic consequences of this on the hydroelectric power development of the country, Nigeria, visavis the national economy. It also advocates alternative sources of energy to supplement the current hydroelectric energy so as to avert the impending energy crisis.


POTENTIAL WATER RESOURCES IMPACTS FROM GLOBAL WARMING IN CALIFORNIA

By

Maurice Roos

Chief Hydrologist,

California Department of Water Resources,

1416 9th Street, P.O. Box 942836, Sacramento, CA 942360001,

U.S.A.

Abstract

There is a high degree of uncertainty on possible future climate changes. But there is quite a body of information on possible changes in temperature, sea level, and precipitation. The most important water variable is regional precipitation, a parameter which is not well handled by the various global climate models. Without good precipitation projections, potential impacts remain open to question.

From our analysis, the most important potential impacts on water resources in California from global warming would be: (1) reduced mountain snowpack and a shift in runoff patterns, (2) sea level rise, and (3) possible increases in the size of large floods. The first impact would be a direct result of warmer temperatures which would lift average winter snow levels with a corresponding decrease in mountain snowpack. There would be consequences on water supply and hydroelectric power. Sea level rise could have an impact on California water supply because the SacramentoSan Joaquin River Delta is a major route of water transfer which could be more affected by ocean salinity intrusion. The third impact is a potential increase in the size of large floods because of more intense rainstorms. Higher snow levels in the Sierra Nevada contribute to this impact by more direct rain runoff and less snow accumulation.

Many of the water problems likely to occur with possible global warming are the same as those faced today; warming could just increase the magnitude of those problems.


STATUS OF RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AND OPERATION IN NIGERIA IN VIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE

By

V. O. Oke

NEPA HQ Lagos

Nigeria.

Abstract

NEPA is the pioneer in the construction of the major reservoirs in Nigeria; the first at Kainji which was commissioned in 1969. The Kainji reservoir which lies on the River Niger stores about 150 billion m3 of water with a head of 36m. It is used primarily for power generation (760 MW) and secondarily for fishing, navigation, tourism and drawdown agriculture.

Jebba reservoir which is much smaller than Kainji upstream (1 billion m3, with a head of 29m) generates 540 MW of electricity. Shiroro on the Kaduna river, a tributary of the Niger with a capacity of 7 billion m3 and a head of 112m generates 600 MW of electricity.

Operating these reservoirs optimally, to satisfy these stated multipurposes, as well as down stream users has not been an easy task. The operational situation is complicated further by the severity of the Sahelian drought, the implementation of upstream projects on the River Niger and the adverse effects of global warming interalia.

NEPA has utilised her long experience coupled with modern technology to both operate and study the behaviour of the Niger River system visavis these reservoirs to optimally meet the stated primary and secondary objectives of the schemes. It is hoped that in the not too distant future when the reservoirs at Zungeru, Mambilla and KatsinaAla etc.are added to the NEPA system, the existing experience gained can be utilised in producing an optimal Hydrothermal Power Generation which will establish a more functional, economical, effective and reliable hydro power system supply.

These reservoir management options have been clearly highlighted in this paper.


IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PERFORMANCE OF THE NEPA POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM

By

Ben Caven, CENG., FNSE, FIEE

Executive Director Generation and Transmission,

NEPA

Abstract

Global climate change is a sensitive subject which affects the environment, ecology, and quality of life on the earth. Environmentalists have been sounding warnings on rampant discharge of pollutants into the atmosphere, green house effect, global warming and depletion of the ozone layer which are seriously threatening the life support system which God generously bestowed on the earth. Rich forests have been mowed down in the pursuit of timber, farming, firewood etc. This has led to reduction of rainfall which has consequently encouraged desertification. The gradual drying up of lake Chad and the creeping down of the Sahara Desert are danger signals.

It is absolutely necessary to sensitize peoples of all nations about the imminent danger posed by global warming and depletion of fresh water resources. If the glaciers of the polar regions melt as a result of increased global temperatures, several cities will be swallowed up by flood. Preventive measures must therefore be taken to avert the disaster.

The thrust of this paper is to highlight the effect of climate change on the performance of the NEPA Power Supply System.


IMPACT OF "GLOBAL WARMING" ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRICITY

By

B. A. ATSEYINKU

Executive Director, Distribution and Sales NEPA

Abstract

Initial reaction was that the impact of global climate change on energy development would be confined mainly to the problems associated with generation of electricity through hydroelectric power plant and to a lesser extent, steam power plants that normally require vast quantities of water for cooling purposes and boiler operation. However on further reflection on the issues involved, it becomes obvious that one of the possible effects of global climate change or "Global Warming" as the phenomenon is now commonly known, would be an increase in the demand for electricity precipitated by the rise in ambient temperatures. The resulting interruptions in power supply due to limitations in available generation capacity in the hydro stations would not only result in waste of national resources, it would also have a significant effect on the industrial/manufacturing sector of the economy as well as the commercial and social activities of the nation.


IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS

By

Timothy A. Fasheun,

Department of Meteorology,

Federal University of Technology,

P.M.B. 704, Akure,

Nigeria

Abstract

This chapter has discussed various facets of climate change in the world in general and Nigeria in particular.

Our present state of knowledge suggests that it is difficult to project energy developments on future climate change. This is because of inherent uncertainties involved in their complex interactions and incompatibility in timescales.

It is also concluded that Government Policy Formulations and Implementation are important factors to consider on climate changerelated energy developments of the future.

Various possible strategies to adopt in the events (even before) of climate change have been suggested.


THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON A MULTIPURPOSE HYDROELECTRIC POWER FACILITY

By

I.N. Iwuagwu,

Department of Electrical Engineering,

University of Nigeria,

Nsukka, Nigeria.

Abstract

Global climate change has significant impact on the electric power industry. On the demand side, it may distort the expected load pattern; while on the generation side, it may cause a reduction in the reservoir inputs. Reservoir systems, especially where they involve power generation, are usually capital intensive. It will be foolhardy to operate such systems on intuition. This chapter provides an overview of the interplay of events in a multipurpose multireservoir system with weakening streamflow base. The chapter offers a quantitative analysis linking revenues from the different reservoir uses, so that tradeoffs for different policy requirements can be evaluated. Such analysis is timely as there may be need to give equal consideration to power and nonpower values of water resources for the overall interest of the public [1]. The mathematical model developed can be used to favour (or simulate) any particular application of a reservoir system. The chapter also discusses the implications of streamflow contingencies and suggests ways to cushion the adverse effects on power generation on the long run.


POWER PRODUCTION AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

By

A. C. EKEH

Engineering & Technology Department,

Nigerian National Petroleum Company, APAPA

And

P.C. NJOKU

HydroPower Project Division

(Resettlement Department)

N. E. P. A

LAGOS

Abstract

Developing nations will need a high annual investment just to meet future electricity demand which is currently running at less than required. Given the environmental impact of energy generation using oil, coal and gasfired power stations, this required increase in generation capacity is an awesome prospect.

Switching to new, clean energy technologies through access provided by developed nations, ensures a check on environmental destruction that threatens both the rich and poor. To achieve the goal of sustainability, the new development and technologies in this field must be distributed and incorporated into the existing infrastructure of developing countries.



SECTION IV - CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE


ROLE OF HUMAN AGENCY IN VEGETATION CHANGES IN SOUTHWESTERN NIGERIA: ARCHAEOLOGICAL AND PALAEOENVIRONMENTAL EVIDENCE.

By

Philip A. Oyelaran

Department of Archaeology & Anthropology,

University of Ibadan,

Ibadan Nigeria.

Abstract

This work examines the possible relationships between Man and the Environment over time, particularly Man's role in the derivation of the present day vegetation in the study area.

Archaeological data were obtained during three seasons of excavations undertaken at Itaakpa rockshelter, IfeIjumu, Southwestern Nigeria. A C14 date of 2210±80BP was obtained at the rockshelter in close association with hominid remains. Pollen analysis and magnetic susceptibility measures were carried out on samples obtained from Esa pond in the study area. During the palynological study of the pond, charcoal specks were found and these were considered to be indicative of bush burning in the catchment area of the pond. This inference was corroborated by the recorded progressive increase in magnetic susceptibility value towards the top of the deposits, a phenomenon suggestive of soil magnetic enhancement through burning and cultivation. The occurence of largescale bush burning and vegetation clearance was further corroborated by a progressive increase in savanna species and a corresponding decrease in forest elements towards the top of the sequence. Archaeological evidence indicates that oil palm was already being exploited by man in this area, probably as a food source, by about 2210±80BP (300 B.C).


IMPACTS OF DEFORESTATION ON CLIMATE, HYDROLOGY, AND ENERGY GENERATION IN NIGERIA.

BY

EBONG T. ESHETT

Federal University of Technology,

School of Agriculture & Agricultural Technology,

P.M.B. 1526

OWERRI.

NIGERIA

Abstract

Although Nigeria as a country is endowed with climatic conditions which are generally conducive to the growth of a variety of food and tree crops and forests as a whole, the current nearreckless forest exploitation that is being witnessed in most parts of the country, particularly in Southern Nigeria, has brought large scale deforestation. This in turn has resulted in some climatic and hydrological changes, disruption of ecological balance, environmental degradation, and a reduction in the hydroelectric energy development potentials of the nation.

There are three major intangible and perhaps imperceptible effects of deforestation in the Nigerian agroecological environment. One is the massive gully erosion. The second is the 'greenhouse effect', while the third is siltation of streams and rivers and the consequent destruction of aquatic life, reduction in water level and destruction of hydroelectric power generation facilities. Research scientists, decision makers, and planners, under pressure to put in place measures aimed at bringing about improved food and power production and general economic advancement of Nigeria, are faced with the task of maintaining a balance between burgeoning population, judicious exploitation of natural resources, and maintaining the integrity of the environment. This work attempts to bring into sharp focus, the multifarious roles of trees in the agricultural and socioeconomic life of man, and to articulate in some detail, the effects of deforestation on microclimatic, hydrological, and energy development potentials of Nigeria. Suggestions about the best ways to manage Nigeria's land and water resources are proffered, the first step in the achievement of which is the setting up of a good and dependable agrometeorological data base, with regular updating as desirable, of the natural resources of each State of the Federation, and the subtle changes that take place within the various components of the country's ecosystems, namely, climate, water, vegetation cover, soil, animal and avifaunal life.


MANINDUCED ALTERATION IN THE HYDROLOGICAL INPUT OF A CATCHMENT AREA A CASE STUDY OF ESA PONDS, IFFEIJUMU, KOGI STATE, NIGERIA.

By

PHILIP A. OYELARAN

Dept. of Archaeology & Anthropology,

University of Ibadan,

Ibadan Nigeria.

Abstract

This work is an attempt to demonstrate that maninduced alterations of a catchment area through bush burning and cultivation seem to be one of the most likely explanations for changes in its hydrological input. Magnetic susceptibility measures and particle size analysis were carried out on samples obtained from Esa pond in the study area. During the analysis, charcoal specks were found in the sediments and these were considered to be indicative of bush burning in the catchment area of the pond. This interference was corroborated by the recorded progressive increase in magnetic susceptibility value toward the top of the deposits, a phenomenon suggestive of soil magnetic enhancement through burning and cultivation. Also susceptibility maxima influenced by anthropogenic factors were interpreted to be processes which brought about the deposition of coarser material, erosion intensity and water currents.


SOME ASPECTS OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON POWER GENERATION IN NIGERIA

By

T.C. Madueme

Department of Electrical Engineering

University of Nigeria, Nsukka,

Nigeria.

Abstract

The continuous emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is said to be one of the occurences that will lead to climate change over the years. An evidence of regional climate change in Nigeria is the current southward drift of the Sahara desert which has been estimated by some experts to be about five kilometres per year [1]. It has been shown that the development of water related projects gives rise to adverse changes in the patterns of water infested diseases [2] and these may not be unconnected with periodic changes in the water level due to seasonal flooding.

Some factors which affect inadequate electric power generation from some Nigerian thermal power stations are presented. Social and environmental health hazards that could happen as a result of the impact of climate change on water availability are treated. Thermal power stations are known to emit carbon dioxide into the air. The energy use and economic consequences of any government legislation prohibiting or advocating for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from our thermal power stations are considered. It is suggested that costeffective strategies for the minimization of the emissions be adopted by NEPA in order to forestall the consequencces of any future emission law. The need for efficient planning of water resources infrastructure and a comprehensive government policy on hydro power stations is highlighted. Some problems that could hinder the successful implementation of such a policy are also presented and possible solutions advanced.



SECTION V - POLICY SUGGESTIONS


APPRAISAL OF THE ROLE OF SATELLITE SYSTEMS IN ACQUISITION OF DATA FOR MONITORING AND EVALUATING GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO RESERVOIR ENERGY GENERATION.

By

NKEM ONONIWU

Head of Computer Centre

National Water Resources Institute,

Mando Road, Kaduna, Nigeria.

Abstract

Data required for the understanding of our earth and the dynamic changes that occur in it which affect lives here have, in the past, been collected by point to point method. The effect is that the data are neither up to date, sufficient (for effective modelling), objective, comprehensive nor accurate, for either monitoring the global climatic change or evaluating the impact of the extreme events.

Since the advent of satellite technology, there have been improvements on the sensor radiometers and data acquisition methodology, such that would provide the necessary data required for the understanding of the impact of global climatic changes on our environment.

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of some of these satellite systems and their various applications in data acquisition, change monitoring and impact assessment, in case of adverse effects. It further goes to show how energy managers can acquire, process and manage real time Satellite data for real time problem solving, using satellite data.


E. I. A. AND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

By

OKEDI A. SAM

National Water Resources Institute,

Mando Road,

P. M. B. 2309, Kaduna.

Abstract

That there is a global energy crisis is not contentious and energy development and utilisation have become prime factors in development. Activities in this sector therefore occupy high priority rating on most government programmes and Nigeria is not an exception.

Activities in the energy sector however pose the greatest environmental problems and challenges to mankind both in scale and magnitude. These problems and challenges are mitigable, preventable or reduceable and can even be eliminated, when environmental planning measures are integrated into the sector in all facets of the activities therein.

The issues of integration are considered at the project planning stage, the decision making stage (policy and project appraisal) and the implementation stage. These composite issues are integral components at the planning, preconstruction, construction and post construction levels.

The energy demand of the country is met mainly from thermal plants and hydro stations with combined aggregate energy of about 6,000 MW; however there is a huge deficit in supply accounted for by suppressed demands put at 2500MW (not including the nationwide rural electrification demand). The strategy being employed by NEPA is that of taking on new installations, with more on the drawing boards. There will be more construction and more transmission lines.

Because of the considered primary and secondary environmental impacts of activities in this sector, the E.I.A Decree 86, of 1992 puts developments in the petroleum resources sector and energy (Power generation and transmission) on the schedule of mandatory list of activities requiring an E.I.A., that should lead to a possible public hearing and final sound environmental management decision. The legal framework is there, the institution is there, but there seems to be no operative system.

There is no evidence available of any adequate environmental consideration of activities in this sector. This is not the case of feasibility studies! Abandoned projects, users conflicts, environmental conflicts, partial or total loss of amenities, reduced capacity utilisation and the numerous and unquantifiable effects of environmental degradation in economic sense attest this fact. In the current dispensation, a new approach to development, in this sector, encompassing sound environmental management policies, needs to be seriously considered.


COMPETING AND CONFLICTING REGIONAL INTERESTS IN HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT

By

Dr. L.I. Odigie

Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,

Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria,

Nigeria.

Abstract

This paper discusses the issues, factors and effects of regional climatic change as they affect availability of water for hydropower systems. It examines the baseline data of the upper to the lower middle sections of the River Niger and also the developments that have taken place within the section of the basin. Based on the competing and conflicting interests of these developments, it suggests that the effects of these interests on the availability of water for hydro power development at Kainji may outweigh those of the global climatic change.


GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RELATED UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMMES GEARED TOWARDS THE MOVE TO "SAVE THE EARTH"

By

G. C. ONWUKA (MRS)

Secretary, Science & Technology Sector,

Nigerian National Commission For UNESCO

14, Broad Street, PMB 2823

Lagos Nigeria.

Abstract

Environmental problems with emphasis on Global Climate Change, Greenhouse effect, Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), depletion of the Ozone, layer, have been a major issue confronting the scientific community today.

This paper presents the concern of UNESCO and other UN Agencies towards the problems of environment, their contribution towards finding solution to these environment issues, right from the onset of the First World Conference on Environment in 1972 in Stockholm, till the latest United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio, Brazil in 1992. The paper also delves into the result of United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) including Agenda 21 and how most UNESCO existing programmes already support UNCED objectives.

The paper will conclude by highlighting some of the efforts made by some developed nations towards the reversal of the effects of Global Climate Change and finally will offer some recommendations.


NIGERIA'S ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT SITUATION AND THE GLOBAL WARMING PHENOMENON: THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL APPROACH

By

'Femi Olokesusi

Assistant Research Director,

Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research,

P.M.B. 5, University of Ibadan Post Office

Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract

The increase in the amount of major "greenhouse" gases namely: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons, is anticipated to lead to an increase in the average global temperature from 20C to 50C between now and the year 2040. The warming effect poses difficult decisions for energy and other development policy makers within the context of sustainable development. While there are conflicting data on the intensity of the global phenomenon, particularly at both country and regional levels, recent trends in most parts of the world and in the West African subregion strongly confirm that warming has begun. This work reviews the major causes and possible impacts of the warming phenomenon in the West African subregion, as well as some environmental management policies and strategies in specific regional blocks, before suggesting policy directions for countries in the region, since global warming and its effects require more than individual national actions.



SECTION VI - ASSESSING, MONITORING AND MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE


MANAGING THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGES IN GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS) ENVIRONMENT FROM A RIVER BASIN PERSPECTIVE THE CASE OF DROUGHT

By

Nkem U. Ononiwu,

Head of Computer Centre,

National Water Resources Institute,

Mando Road, Kaduna.

Nigeria

Abstract

Global variations in climate have brought about extreme events like flood and drought which have had drastic impacts on river basin development structures. Such structures include dams on which Nigeria has depended for most of its renewable energy generation. In the past, decisions relating to the management of these extreme climatic conditions, especially as they affect developments within river basin, have either been experimental or experiential. Such a subjective approach did not take into consideration, the total picture of the problems in the basin and therefore could not be said to be effective.

This paper discusses a new approach to decision making otherwise known as GIS. It is a computerbased approach for merging georeferenced files for decision making. These files contain data necessary for the management of that basin. Several computer routines are evoked in form of queries that produce the best and most objective decision in the circumstances of the occurrence of extreme events, such as flood and drought and their impact on the basin. Suggestions have been made on how to use the GIS for rational and verifiable forecasting of extreme events caused by global climate changes. Finally the cost analysis of integrating this methodology in the overall management of reservoir based energy generation is given.


THE PROBLEM OF CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION IN THE GENERATION, TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION OF POWER

By

M.O. DOSUNMU

Asst. Director,

Dept. of Meterology,

Lagos

Abstract

The problem of climate and climate change is as old as the first men on earth. A proper and good understanding of what is climate and what is only a climate variation and climate change, as one considers the impact of each of them on the social and economic disruption, is what makes it's prediction an arduous task.

Certainly, there is no definition that is not appropriate, in as much as it is capable of solving the enormous functions of NEPA in the application of meteorological data. Case study of Ibadan township offers a prediction of Flash Flood and not flooding.

And finally, of all climatic elements and climatic phenomena, which impede the collection of substantial financial revenue by NEPA, lightning strikes and bush fires are what the Author considers as "Climate Monster", and this should bring NEPA and Meteorological organisations closer together than ever before.


TOWARDS IMPROVING DAM DESIGN FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT BY NATIONAL ELECTRIC POWER AUTHORITY (NEPA) THE NEED FOR MICROSTUDIES ON PRECIPITATION EFFECTIVENESS

By

D. O. Adefolalu

Professor of Applied Metrology/Climatology,

Federal University of Technology,

Minna, Nigeria.

Abstract

Tackling present and future effects of Climate Change in Nigeria demands an integrated, multidisciplinary approach for which no investment should be considered too high. To sustain present level of economic development and maintain a balance with nature through appropriate conservation measure, World Bank Estimates in 1991 suggest that about 40% of the GDP or N100 billion is required annually.

In the WATER sector, basic aspects of applied research have been neglected over the years and power supply is at best sporadic if not totally unreliable not due to poor expertise of NEPA but exacerbation of its logistic problems by climatic aberrations of which drought is the most serious; resulting in lowyield of water for hydroelectric power generation (among other uses).

Attempt is made in this work to expatiate on the problem of climate change as it may weigh heavily against future prospect for better power supply, if fundamental research on appropriate data is neglected. A GIS database on some aspects of precipitation effectiveness crucial to proper understanding of future climate change and how best to tackle it, is presented with focus on microscale analysis and attributes of:

Onset, Cessation and Length of the Hydrologic Rainy Season (LRS)

Breaks (Drought spells) during the course of normal rainy season

Degree of wetness or dryness (Hydrologic Ratio, 6)

Water equivalent to avert drought

Spatial and temporal distribution pattern of point rainfall

Intensity of Precipitation

Severe storms (frequency and patterns)


THE NEED FOR LONG TERM STUDIES ON REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE TO ENSURE ADEQUATE ELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION.

BY

T.C. MADUEME,

Department of Electrical Engineering,

University of Nigeria,

Nsukka.

Abstract

In Nigeria today, many people are generally aware of what has been referred to as adverse weather conditions or climate change that exist in some parts of the country. They point to the many years of the terrible experiences of persistent drought in the north of the country, as evidence of this change. Some Nigerian scientists and Government representatives have at one time or the other, highlighted the threat not only to innocent citizens, but also to animal husbandry and the Nation's agricultural output by the observed southward advance of the Sahara desert towards the Northern states. As a result of this, many States in the region have embarked on massive planting of drought resistant trees as a means of checking the desert encroachment. The problem of low water levels at some of the Nation's hydro power stations, even during some rainy season periods, has been attributed by some analysts to regional climate change.

In this work, it is suggested that longterm studies on regional climate change in Nigeria should be embarked upon and vigorously pursued. Data obtained from such studies can be very useful for computational analysis. Results from many of such analysis over the years would give proper indications that would be very useful in the siting, design and construction of future electric power hydro stations in the country. The result of possible reduction of power generation due to low water in their dams are highlighted and discussed. Recommendations for adequate power generation from hydropower stations that will take into consideration regional climate change, are presented.


POWER GENERATION OPTIONS AND GRID MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES FOR OPTIMAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND UTILISATION IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

By

B.O. Adeyemo

Manager (PC&M) TD&C Division,

NEPA HQ, MarinaLagos

Abstract

This chapter will focus on climate change as it affects electricity production and utilisation in Nigeria.

A pattern of how the national electricity company, National Electric Power Authority (NEPA), met demands can be correlated with the emerging climate pattern. In this presentation, the effect of climatic changes on the environment, ecosystem and socioeconomic activities of Nigerians, as it relates to production and consumption of electricity is highlighted.

The electricity generation/consumption pattern determines the energy usage. The basic energy sources available in the country are then considered in a mix to provide a balanced energy development that is appropriate for this climatic change.

The work concludes on electricity grid management techniques available for optimal management of our energy resources for electricity generation; as the economic usage of available electricity is required now than ever before.



SECTION VII - QUANTIFYING CLIMATE CHANGE


AN INDICATION OF ABRUPT CHANGE OF RAINFALL AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

By

E.O. Oladipo

Department of Geography

Ahmadu Bello University

Zaria, Nigeria

Abstract

Civilization depends on energy, and history has shown that, to a large extent, there is a link between economic growth and growth in energy demand. In general, there are two basic sources of energy, namely commercial (e.g. coal, gas, nuclear, hydropower, etc) and traditional (e.g. biomass, crop residues, animal waste, etc). In Nigeria, a major source of electricity production by the National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) is by hydroelectric stations. The performance of these stations depend on rainfall conditions in their respective areas. Also, in the area of biomass production, rainfall is the key climatic determinant factor.

Rainfall in Nigeria is highly variable from year to year: typically over 20% of the average annual values in some areas. Because of the large interannual variability of rainfall in many parts of Nigeria, particularly the northern sector, severe and widespread droughts may occur in some years in these areas. The increasing trend towards reduced rainfall in recent decades had led to a considerable speculation about the possibility of an abrupt change in the rainfall climate of the country.

This paper uses a sequential version of the MannKendallSneyers trend test to examine the extent of climatic jump in the rainfall series of some synoptic stations in Northern Nigeria and also for some zonal values over the country. The results indicate that rainfall series exhibit a general downward trend between 1921 and 1990 with significant abrupt change in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This downward trend is interpreted as an indication of an abrupt change in the mean climatic conditions and suggests bistable modes of oscillation in the climate.

A major shift towards increasing aridity in Nigeria in recent decades would indicate reduced runoff and stream discharge and decreased volume of water available for dam turbines. The implication is a reduction in the capacity of NEPA dam turbines to meet increasing energy demands in the country. It will also indicate that post1970 hydrological standards need to be selected for hydraulic systems for efficient and costsaving dam constructions. In the area of biomass energy production, which supplies the energy needs of a large proportion of the rural populace, recent rainfall trends need to be considered for our afforestation programmes. Increasing aridity will also indicate increase in temperature which would result in increasing airconditioning demands, and consequently increase in electricity demand, generating capacity requirements, annual generation and fuel costs nationally. All these call for a better future energy planning that takes cognizance of the recent climatic "normals" in Nigeria.


LOW FLOW AT KAINJI: CLIMATE CHANGE OR HYDROLOGIC NOISE?

By

E. D. Udoeka,

Chief Hydrologic Engineer,

Hydrology & Water Resources Section,

Federal Department of Meteorological Sevices

P. M. B. 12542, LAGOS, Nigeria

Abstract

The stationarity of climate and hydrology has until recently been the pivot concept in the planning, decision making and management of water resources. Recent concern by Scientists worldwide over a possible climate change has brought to focus the need for water resources managers to consider the stochastic nature of climatic variables (precipitation,runoff, etc) in their hydrologic estimates to assess the performance of water resource systems.

This chapter examines the impact of climate change and variability on water availability with a focus on the headwater catchments (SokotoRima/Upper Niger catchments) that control the flow regimes of the River Niger above Kainji, where the National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) operates its largest reservoir (the Kainji Dam). Using exogeneous data collected from the 300,000 square kilometres composite catchment, an initial investigation was carried out to ascertain whether climate change is at work in the reduced flows at Kainji reservoir observed in the last couple of years or whether the situation is caused by normal inherent hydrologic fluctuations (noise) in water resources availability. This investigation showed an evidence of climate change in the northwestern region of Nigeria.

The way out for NEPA in the judicious management and use of water to make water resources systems more resilient and robust for socioeconomic uses under climate change conditions is also addressed.


MULTI USER WEATHER MONITORING INITIATIVES IN THUNDERSTORM/FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN THE IBADAN OSHOGBO AKURE AXIS OF NIGERIA

By

S.I. ADEBAYO ET AL

Research Branch,

Department of Meteorological Services,

Lagos Nigeria

Abstract

In 1991 (from 28th September to 8th October) the Department of Meteorological Services in collaboration with Federal University of Technology, Akure, embarked upon a Research Project monitoring thunderstorms and squally disturbances in the Easterly waves in the Ibadan Oshogbo Akure axis. The experiment involved setting up of selfrecording and manual raingauges along the suspected trajectory of line Squalls that bring about flood disasters to Ibadan and environs. In addition to rainfall and rainfall intensity, visual observations were made of squall/thunderstorms ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) to compliment the selfrecording raingauge observations. Pilot Balloon observations were also made at Ife, Ibadan, and Oshogbo on 3 to 6 hourly bases and as weather situation demanded, although radiosonde observations would have been preferred for better accuracy of the dynamical, vertical and temperature profiling of the systems.

Out of 14 stations, five were concentrated around Ibadan high grounds on the windward and leeward sides to assess the effects of orography. The list of other stations included Iwo, Ikire, Ilobu, Oshogbo, State Ministry of Works, Ede, Ife, Ibadan (New Airport and old Airport).

Although, the initial objective in this first phase was to monitor west bound severe storms (originating from Oshogbo and beyond) that contribute to Disaster in the flood plains of Ogunpa River, the design in the 2nd phase can be reviewed to accommodate closer monitoring of storms and lightning development around Oshogbo, with special reference to their frequency, preferred locations, intensity and time of maximum occurrence. Combined Satellite and Mobile Radar Observations will make cell to cell recognition easy and monitorable for long and short term forecast as early warning for NEPA (National Electric Power Authority) at Oshogbo in respect of power distribution.

Apart from NEPA, the State's Agricultural Development Programmes of the World Bank, the Emergency Relief Agencies and other relevant organizations such as Ogun/Osun River Basin Development Authority, States' Ministry of Agriculture, National Agricultural Land Development Authority, Water Operations or Utility Boards, will find the overall Project useful in realtime or none realtime as a continuous exercise to acquire climatological data for future planning, even when the actual Experiment is over. This will make possible change detection and hence Early Warning Alert for mitigation plans against adverse impact of Climate Change and Global Warming.


KAINJI DAM LOW POWER PRODUCTION A COMBINED EFFECT OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND POOR MANAGEMENT

By

Augustine N. Egbulem

National Water Resources Institute, Kaduna.

Nigeria

Abstract

The operation of the Kainji reservoir is dependent on the inflows from within and outside the country. Power output is directly proportional to the reservoir elevation and therefore to the runoff from the contributing areas. It is therefore expected that, if other catchment processes and parameters remain constant, the higher the annual rainfall, the higher the runoff that should be expected to generate the inflow into the Kainji dam reservoir and viceversa.

In this work, the annual rainfall of stations within Nigeria, that are contributing inflows to the Kainji reservoir have been analysed. In addition, the present and future water resources developments in the SokotoRima Basin were evaluated with due consideration given to the possible runoff inflows into the Kainji reservoir.

The variability and trend of annual rainfall at these stations were investigated and the possible cause of low power production from Kainji dam ascribed. It is believed to be a combination of climatic variability and poor management of the scarce water resources of the basin.

The basin wide planning of the water resources in the catchment is being proposed, while coordination between water agencies in the basin is recommended, for effective water resources planning and management.


EVAPORATION RATES FROM KAINJI DAM RESERVOIR: INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE CHANGES

BY

J.U.IKOI

Hydrology Division,

Dept. of Meteorological Services,

Lagos.

Abstract

The process by which water is converted from liquid to vapour state is called Evaporation. Sufficient Kinetic energy from the sun attained by water molecules enables them to overcome the attractive forces holding them within the liquid water and are projected through the water surfaces.

Evaporation is an important process in the hydrological cycle especially in a hot climate where loss of water from rivers, canals and open water storage is a vital matter; as evaporation takes away a significant portion of all water supplies.

In particular, storage reservoirs expose wide areas to evaporation and are thus a major source of water loss. The impact of evaporation on hydropower generation reservoir like the Kainji Dam reservoir is obvious; less water is available for reservoir operation especially during low flow regimes.

This study is aimed at estimating the mean monthly evaporation from Kainji Dam reservoir by a very inexpensive method and thus ascertain through the class A pan method, the water loss from that available for hydropower generation; thus asserting its effects on power supply.

Data from Yelwa Synoptic Station including meteorological factors influencing evaporation to improve estimates, are analysed, with a view to finding if over the years evaporation values are changing.


WORLD HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE OBSERVING SYSTEM (WHYCOS) AND WATER AVAILABILITY AT LAKE KAINJI

By

Olusanjo A. Bamgboye

Abstract

WMO has been promoting, with the support of the World Bank and other agencies, the concept of a World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS). WHYCOSAfrica aims to build up a collection of high quality data for the main rivers and at the same time, to support and stimulate the Hydrological Services of the continent through their responsibility for the management and maintenance of the network. It would not only upgrade Water Resources Assessment, but also contribute to the understanding of global climate, including drought through collection of up to fifteen (15) hydrometorological varibles.

The paper appraises the water availability at Lake Kainji using data from preconstruction (19541960) inflows up to the present inflows to evaluate the performance of Kainji reservoir and justify the need for Nigeria to fully participate in WHYCOS for reliable Hydrologic Predictions at Kainji and Jebba.



SECTION VIII - POWER PLANNING AND OPERATIONS


ADVANCES IN HYDROTHERMAL GENERATION SCHEDULING

By

Olurunfemi Ojo

Department of Electrical Engineering,

Tennessee Technological University,

Cookville, TN 38505, U.S.A.

Abstract

The objective for optimal scheduling of hydrothermal system is to determine short and long term operating strategies, given the state of the power system to produce generation targets for each thermal and hydro plant. The strategies must minimize the expected operating cost and transmission line losses even in situations with variable head and stochastic inflows. Arriving at these optimal strategies is complicated in view of limited amounts of hydroelectric energy, imperfect forecast of future inflow sequences, climatic conditions and transmission constraints. It is the purpose of this paper to review pertinent issues relating to hydroelectric developments and the short and long term generation scheduling.


PLANNING FOR VARIABILITY IN WATER AVAILABILITY: THE HYDROTHERMAL SCHEDULING PROBLEM

By

Paul Nosike Ekemezie

Department of Electronic Engineering,

University of Nigeria,

Nsukka, Enugu State.

Abstract

Global warming is no longer speculation. The threat is real and has far reaching consequences. While it is a frightening topic among some people, others and very many too are unaware of its implications. A lot of factors come into play and the size of the impacts vary from one region to another.

This short contribution discusses a few of the less wellknown impacts of climate change.


MAXIMIZATION OF HYDRO BENEFITS IN A HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEM WITH INSUFFICIENT HYDRO POWER USING STATISTICAL INFLOWS.

BY

I.N. Iwuagwu,

Department of Electrical Engineering,

University of Nigeria, Nsukka.

Abstract

In a hydrothermal system, the fuel cost is determined to the greatest extent by the thermal generation. One of the adverse impacts of global climate change on the electric utility industry is the depreciation of the system's hydro capabilities resulting in increased dependence on thermal generation and the consequent increase in system fuel cost. However, by proper coordination of the available hydro capabilities and the thermal resources, management can keep fuel cost to a minimum. This is the objective of this work. The optimization is performed using Discrete Differential Dynamic Programming (DDDP). The work gives a guide for reservoir content discretization which can cause serious problems in application of dynamic programming formulation. The work also establishes the condition for maximum hydro generation from hydro plant, used to serve base load. The streamflows are treated as stochastic variables and the variability in system load incorporated into the formulation by modelling the load as a Markov chain. The system fuel cost is minimized and the optimal schedule for water releases through the hydraulic turbines indicated. A detailed numerical example, using a realistic system, is given to demonstrate the application of the algorithm presented in the work. It is hoped that the techniques presented in this work will provide a guide for the practitioner who is involved in implementing them.


THERMAL GENERATING UNIT COMMITMENT FOR REDUCTION IN FUEL COST

By

I.N. Iwuagwu

Department of Electrical Engineering,

University of Nigeria, Nsukka,

Nigeria

Abstract

Minimization of fuel cost remains one of the problem areas for power system planners. This problem is likely to be on the increase with sustained global warming as more hydro generation is lost, and any improvement in unit commitment procedure can lead to much savings in fuel cost. The main focus of this work is the minimization of total system fuel cost by proper commitment of the available thermal units in allthermal system, or a system with insufficient hydro capability. The algorithm is based on dynamic programming as the optimization tool. The study also includes a sensitivity analysis of a technique already proposed by the author and a colleague [1]. This technique has already been implemented on a digital computer. The input to the computer programme includes thermal unit data and the expected load pattern; while the output includes the list of generating units that should be online and their levels of loading for each time interval in the scheduling period. Such information is very important to a national control centre that dictates the system's daily unit commitment.


PROBABILISTIC RESOURCE SCHEDULING IN A HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEM

By

I.N. Iwuagwu,

Department of Electrical Engineering,

University of Nigeria, Nsukka.

Abstract

The availability of energy resources (water, fossil fuels, e.t.c.) for a power system is often surrounded by a number of uncertainties. The power system operation is also subject to generating unit forced outages and system load variability which are random processes. Therefore, it is imperative for the system planner to use appropriate stochastic models to incorporate the economic effects of the uncertainties that could occur in the system during the planning period, if he is to come up with realistic results. This work discusses some of these stochastic events and the appropriate stochastic models for the hydro system, thermal system, and the system load. The paper also gives a simple resource scheduling sequence in a power system with different types of generation. The evaluation of system reliability at the forecasted level of resources availability is important for production planing. In this regard, the lossofloadprobability method for system reliability evaluation is also presented. Simple numerical examples are included to illustrate the application of some of the techniques. Effort is made, as much as possible, not to obscure the basic principles with details and mathematics. However, references are cited for fuller details for the interested reader. The work is intended to provide a concise overview of probabilistic simulation for the system planner and the dispatcher.



SECTION IX - TOWARDS IMPROVED ENERGY DEVELOPMENT


DOMESTIC ENERGY CRISIS AND ENERGY CONSERVATION: EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT

By

CHIMA, REGINALD IKECHUKWU

Lecturer/Research Fellow

Department of Economics

University of Nigeria,

Nsukka, Nigeria.

Abstract

In recent times the sustainability of Nigeria's energy resource development has been called to question. On the supply side, there have been intermittent warnings from energy industries on the growing expansion of aggregate domestic energy consumption. Apparently these warnings came amidst consumer reactions against inadequate supply of energy products. On the demand side, energy efficiency improvements or conservation and demand management measures aimed at providing energy consumers with proper technical knowledge, financial incentives through appropriate price signals and taxes or subsidies, educational and promotional information seem to be intuitively appealing particularly in periods of increased scarcity of energy. This paper diagnoses Nigeria's domestic energy crisis in the context of the technical and economic implications of perennial energy scarcity. The paper also proceeds with an evaluation of desirable energy conservation strategy, among alternative strategies, for conservation energy resource development in Nigeria.


A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY CONSERVATION

By

Alec Estlander

ENONO OY/Ministry of Environment, Finland

and

Göran Lundgren,

Swedish Trade Council SWEBEX

Abstract

Air pollution is today one of the major environmental problems worldwide. Air pollutants are found and constitute problems on local, regional, international and global levels (Fig. 1). Even if sources are local and manyfold, the accumulated environmental effects are now widely recognized to be global. And even if preventive and curative measures are local, a broader, even global perspective and a systems approach will help getting costeffective priorities right on all levels of management.

The main air pollution sources in most countries are energy production and conversion, industry and traffic. Conversely, the dominating environmental problem in the energy sector is air pollution. The emphasis in this presentation is on the energy sector and its potential for efficient environmental improvements.


ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

By

R.R. Pachauri

Director,

Tata Energy Research Institute

and

Chairman,

International Association for Energy Economics,

Washington, D.C.

Abstract

Theories of economic development that were generally fashionable in the fifties and sixties are today under severe scrutiny. The path of economic development pursued in the past by all countries of the world, investing heavily in industrial and modern infrastructure, has been generally energy intensive and highly exploitative of our natural environment. This has led the world to a state wherein the disparity between rich and poor has grown at an alarming rate, the environment that we live and breathe in has become polluted to an extent that different forms of life on earth themselves are threatened, and limits appear to have been reached on the sustainability of current development strategies. The world is therefore, looking for new paradigms that would ensure not only a halt in the harmful trends that have become all too apparent in the relentless pursuit of economic growth, but also bring about solution to these and other problems through a new process of sustainable development.


GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS AND OPTIONS AVAILABLE FOR ELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION

By

A. A. JIMOH,

Corporate Planning, Research and Development,

NEPA Headquarters,

Lagos.

Abstract

Concerns about the global environment are articulated with the view of identifying and assessing the options for electric power generation suitable for instituting control and delimiting the phenomena leading to environmental degradation. The present and future scenarios of the environmental problem and their causative factors are presented. In view of environmental concerns, generationexpansion planning is formulated as a multiattribute vector optimization problem.


TOWARDS ENVIRONMENTALLY SAFE ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM (PART I)

By

C.C. AGUNWAMBA,

Deprartment of Statistics

University of Nigeria, Nsukka

And

J.C. AGUNWAMBA,

Department of Civil Engineering

University of Nigeria, Nsukka.

Abstract

By Federal Government of Nigeria Decree No.24 of 1972, National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) was established to coordinate, more efficiently, electricity supply in the nation. Despite some problems facing NEPA, the authority has continuously had a positive role in the nation's socioeconomic development. Over the past 20 years, NEPA has successfully increased its generating capacity from 717MW in 1972 to 5940MW in 1992 to cater for the corresponding demand of 407MW and 2362MW respectively (NEPA Review, 1993).

In spite of these successes, NEPA has several areas where improvement is required. For instance because of infrequent electric supply, it is usual for industries, residential homes and institutions to have standby generators. These generators generate much noise as well as emissions which constitute health hazards. Besides, it is questionable whether the present state of electricity generation offers the best economic advantage. Hence, this work is aimed at proposing improved systems that are economically better than the existing system, as well as having less environmental impact.


TOWARDS ENVIRONMENTALLY SAFE ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM (PART II)

By

J.C AGUNWAMBA

Department of Civil Engineering,

University of Nigeria, Nsukka

And

C.C AGUNWAMBA

Department of Statistics,

University of Nigeria,

Nsukka.

Abstract

The threat to climate change caused by increases in anthropogenic emissions of green house gases poses a danger to the world. Imminent on earth with serious implications, are alterations in climate patterns, occurence of greater weather extremes and rising sea levels, erosion, droughts, flooding and so on. The green house gases contribute to green house effect where the infrared radiation leaving the earth (about 3% of the incoming solar radiation) is partly captured by these gases and transformed into heat. The green house gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), Chlorofluorocarbons CFCs) and related chermicals and nitrogen oxide (IPCC, 1990). Energy activities account for roughly 60% of the current contributions to increased radioactive forcing properties of the atmosphere (Schwengels and Solomon, 1990). Hence, forestalling and mitigation of climatic change will demand a critical appraisal of the present energy generation and consumption policy.


GLOBAL WARMING AND HYDROELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN NIGERIA

By

A.S. Adeyemi,

Lecturer, Geography Department,

University of Ilorin, Ilorin.

Abstract

Global warming is generally known to be related to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by a phenomenal increased usage of fossil fuel. Warming as being predicted, can cause a serious climatic change. In this article, a descriptive method is adopted to establish link between warming and future hydroelectricity supply in Nigeria. A tradeoff between warming and hydroelectricity supply is established. Suggestions were made as to the possible solutions.

One then asks, what is climatic change, what are its causes, and correlates? This chapter thus seeks to present a brief review of the nature of climatic change and its link with hydroelectricity generation in Nigeria. In particular, link between global warming and hydroelectricity generation in Nigeria will be examined.


MINI AND MICRO HYDRO SCHEMES IN POWER PRODUCTION

By

A.A. Esan,

Energy Planning and Information Systems,

Energy Commission of Nigeria,

Lagos

Abstract

Rapid population growth, economic growth and structural change are creating a demand for energy services. 1,500GW of a new electricity generating capacity could be needed in the developing world by the year 2008.

Electricity supply by sources in Nigeria is shared between hydro, oil and natural gasfired plants. The contribution of coal to electricity generation has become very negligible. The production and use of energy inherently have impact on the environment. Concern of climatic change due to "Greenhouse effect" has mounted over the years. One of such impacts has been drought experienced in the Sahelian region.

Current discussion of energy issues gives constant reference to the contribution of renewable power sources. Energy consumption pattern, obtained from a recent survey is presented and reflects an increasing demand and preference for electricity in the rural and isolated areas of Nigeria. Hydro power, a renewable source, with abundant potential in Nigeria is revisited. Recent improvements in lowhead turbine technology are presented and suggested for substantial contribution to electricity demand in Nigeria, especially in the rural and isolated areas.

Case studies of potential sites are presented to substantiate the possible contribution to electricity supply by mini and micro hydro schemes in the country.


ALTERNATIVE ENERGY OPTIONS FOR NIGERIA AS A REACTION TO IMPENDING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

BY

C. O. ADEGOKE

Mechanical Engineering Department

Federal University of Technology, Akure

Abstract

Some trace gases in the troposphere, notably carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone and chlorofluorocarbons are increasing as a result of increased human activities on the earth surface. These greenhouse gases are essentially transparent to incoming shortwave solar radiation but absorb and emit longwave radiation and are thus capable of contributing to a global climate change. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) may within decades become the greenhouse gas next to CO2 that is changing the radiative properties of the atmosphere most rapidly, unless preventive measures are taken to control the release to the atmosphere. This paper discusses some possible causes of global climatic change and suggests alternative sources of energy, especially for power generation in Nigeria, that could minimize the problems.


RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY FOR CONTROL OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

By

S.O. ENIBE

National Centre for Energy Research and Development,

University of Nigeria, Nsukka,

Nigeria.

Abstract

Commercial electricity generation in Nigeria is dominated by fossilfuel and hydropowerbased systems. The former contributes considerably to environmental pollution and global climate change through the emission of CO2 and other gases. In addition, the longterm availability of conventional FossilFuel reserves is not guaranteed. In order to expand the duration of the utilization of fossil energy reserves and resources and to decrease energy related CO2 emissions, a reinforced exploitation of renewable sources of energy for grid electricity generation is suggested in this work. This is because many renewable energy resources are virtually inexhaustible, and their utilisation does not impose severe environmental hazards. Various renewable energy options for electricity generation are therefore considered, such as solar photovoltaic plants, solar thermal plants and wind power plants, since these appear to be the most promising renewable generators in the near term at least from the point of view of resource availability, state of art and economics. Major constraints towards their utilisation, which include high initial capital cost and the highly transient nature of the resources, are considered. Strategies for overcoming some of these constraints are discussed.



SECTION X - EDITORIAL ROUND-UP


COMBATTING CLIMATE INDUCED WATER AND ENERGY DEFICIENCIES IN WEST CENTRAL AFRICA: HYDRO/ENERGY INTERCONNECTIONS

By

A.O. Adebo

Assistant General Manager, Computer Services,

National Electric Power Authority (NEPA)

A.A. Jimoh

Corporate Planning, Research and Development (NEPA)

V.O. Oke

Power Projects Design and Construction Department (NEPA)

And

J.C. Umolu, Special Consultant

Former Director, Civil Engineering Department (NEPA)

Managing Director, DamTech Nigeria Limited, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria

Abstract

The world climate has been changing, since the evolution of the Earth up to the present day, due to different causes natural and manmade.

These changes are accompanied by different impacts on the various systems that make up Man's environment. In the West Central African Subregion, the impact of global change can be felt especially within the hydrological regime, in the form of drought and desertification on the one hand, floods and erosion on the other.

Most of the past efforts at finding a lasting solution to the problems caused by global climate change have been ad hoc and remedial. The final long term solution to the problem of drought and desertification in West Central Africa for example, lies in transferring water from areas of surplus to the areas of deficiency; since drought is a condition caused by lack of water.

The adverse effects of climate changes are also felt in the Energy sector where electricity generation depends on hydro sources or where thermal power plants depend on availability of cooling waters of the right quantity and quality and at a favourable location.

A final solution to this lies also in the transfer of electrical energy from a major environmentally benign source of pollutionfree electricity generation, to areas of need.

For the West Central African Subregion, the hazard of drought and desertification as well as energy deficiency can be combatted by the efficient use of one natural resource found in great abundance in Zaïre, Central Africa WATER.

An interconnection between Zaïre Basin and West Central Africa has been proposed in the fields of hydro and energy the socalled ZaïreChadNiger Transfer Schemes (ZCN 1 and ZCN 2).

ZCN1 involves the conveyance of Surplus Water from the Zaïre River Basin through Central African Republic, into the Lake Chad Basin and River Niger System (Benue River) through the use of dams, pumps, canals and other water conveyance modes.

ZCN2 is the conveyance of cheap Energy from a major hydroelectric source at Inga Gorge, between Kinshasa and Matadi, at the Lower Congo River in Zaïre Republic.

The Congo River discharges over 70,000 cubic meters per second of fresh water per annum through the Inga Gorge into the Atlantic Ocean. The Inga schemes have a total firm power potential of about 72,000 Megawatts.


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